A lesson the Trump team won’t forget
In 2020, the Trump campaign made a massive tactical error. They're not going to do it again in 2024.
Political campaigns have just two jobs: convince people to support their candidate, then get those fans to actually vote. But in our hyper-polarized political world, persuading people is harder than ever.
There was a time when people changed their minds about presidential candidates, yet today that’s a quaint notion.
Gone are the days when a small misstep could upend a campaign, like Ford saying Eastern Europe wasn’t under the domination of the Soviet Union. Even simple slogans – “Where’s the beef?” – could launch or torpedo a candidacy.
In my life, I’ve never seen polling numbers so impervious to change as they are in this campaign.
Trump was hit with an $88 million defamation judgment for denying he assaulted a woman, then fined another $454 million for fudging real estate valuations. On top of that, he was convicted of 34 felony counts for hiding hush money payments to a porn actress. In normal times, that would have sunk a slew of presidential candidates. The net effect in 2024? Nothing.
Biden's brain shut down mid-debate, leaving an empty podium where the President should've been. The press finally called out his obvious cognitive issues, then turned on him like rabid dogs. The result? Maybe a 2-point dip, if that.
Then, in a scene out of a Stallone movie, Trump took a bullet to the head on live TV. He rose up, blood streaming down his face, fists pumping, as the crowd chanted "USA!" It was quite possibly the most bad-ass moment in presidential history. And the polls? They moved about as much as Jeb in a wind tunnel.
Now Trump faces a brand new opponent and, I predict, the numbers won’t move much at all.
No shock there. When was the last time somebody told you they'd done a 180 on a candidate? And while I’m sure some exist, I’ve yet to meet an honest-to-goodness “undecided” voter. Have you?
But I know people who, for various reasons, never made it to the polls. That's where campaigns win or lose. And in 2020, Team Trump fumbled the ball big time.
Trump spent months bashing mail-in ballots, calling them "totally corrupt." He urged supporters to skip them and vote in-person on Election Day. Any decent campaign strategist knew that was a massive unforced error.
Most states let people vote early for 10-20 days, so teams have time to keep badgering supporters who haven't done so. In 2020, Republicans had to jam all that get-out-the-vote work into a single day. It knee-capped their turnout efforts
Trump has seen the light on this one. Last month, he announced a new initiative called "Swamp The Vote USA" to promote early and absentee voting among Republicans, pledging to "protect the vote" no matter how it's cast.
Americans have picked sides and aren't budging much at all. Trump's reversal on mail-in ballots isn't just a smart strategy—it's necessary.
As 2024 heats up, remember that the only thing that matters is which side gets more backsides to the ballot box.
— Ken
I'm doing my part. I am the Chair of the Milford (MA) Republican Town Committee and I just sent out flyers to 500 low propensity Republican voters, telling them "THIS is what happens when YOU don't vote", with 6 photos of Antifa riots, illegals surging across the border, trans men reading to young children in a library, pictorial of the cost of groceries., etc. And I included a postcard telling them they never even have to leave their house to vote, they can request their mail in ballot online, it comes in the mail, they drop it in their mailbox for the mail carrier to bring to the town clerk, etc. I HOPE and PRAY that my efforts are successful in getting some of these low information, and oftentimes lazy, people to cast a ballot!!!! Massachusetts may not be in play for Trump, but certainly for down ballot candidates.
I know multiple people who have done a 180 change on Trump after the assassination attempt. It’s really surprising, because like you, I haven’t seen anyone ever really change their mind on their Presidential candidate.