The president’s Thursday press briefing was jarring.
Following Special Counsel Robert Hur's report on President Biden, which called into question his mental fitness, Biden held a press briefing to prove them wrong. He accomplished the opposite.
He feebly shuffled to the podium. With sometimes slurring speech, he confused the presidents of Mexico and Egypt, he jarringly forgot the church where he received a rosary for his son, and he confused Hamas and Israel. It was hard to watch.
Republicans know that Joe Biden as nominee is the best path to take back the presidency.
Democrats, deep down, know the above sentence is true, which puts them in a conundrum, even if they won’t say it out loud.
To be clear, it’s not over for him. Biden can still win the 2024 election, but his mental abilities will continue to decline. At this point, it would take an Old Testament-style miracle for Biden to serve out a second term.
If you’re curious about some of the different scenarios that could unfold for Biden now, here are a few of the possibilities.
1. There is no political solution
There’s no ability for the Democratic party to stop Biden’s re-nomination efforts. The election process is too far down the tracks, and no candidate could get on state ballots and mount a substantive campaign. Nor can party leaders do so; there’s no “star chamber” option to replace him as the nominee unless Biden voluntarily removes himself.
2. The “mutiny” option
The 25th Amendment provides a presidential removal process, but not an easy one.
It would require Vice President Harris and a majority of the Cabinet to declare him “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” If Biden objected, both the Senate and House would each need to support the actions with two-thirds majorities.
Here too, the odds of this are close to zero. Biden’s forgetfulness worries Democrats and animate Republicans, but mixing up a few words or mumbling through an intro is a long way from being “unable to discharge” his duties. The standard is whether he can perform his duties, not whether he can do them well.
3. A push from friends
A more reasonable scenario is one that we saw led by Barry Goldwater, convincing President Nixon that his presidency would soon end.
This would take some prominent Democrats, perhaps including former President Obama, giving some tough talk to Biden and his influential wife. The pitch wouldn’t need to be resignation, but encouraging the president to forgo his reelection campaign.
It would be an unprecedented move at this stage of the race. An earlier withdrawal would spark a mad scramble of candidates jumping into campaign mode. A later withdrawal would see Biden’s delegates released, sparking the first open presidential convention since 1952.
It would be a wild time in Chicago.
– Ken
As I understand it Merrick Garland could have opted to not make Hur's report public. Seems obvious he did so to start the ball rolling for some removal strategy. The play callers no doubt have a plan, the next few months may well fit the Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times"
I wish Biden would reach the decision on his own. The fact that he hasn't makes me worry that he's surrounded by advisors who are either afraid or unwilling to be straight with him. That rarely results in effective leadership.
Biden can probably beat Trump, but I don't have a ton of confidence in his ability to run the country for another four years. Americans deserve a candidate who can do both. The best I can hope for is that Biden will dump Harris -- who hasn't proven that she can run her own staff, let alone the country -- and choose a running mate like Whitmer or Newsom.
It's frustrating, but given the choice between A) an over-the-hill president who values America's founding principles and served a passable first term and B) an over-the-hill president/authoritarian/insurrectionist/rapist/ignoramus/con man who served a disastrous first term and promises to be a dictator on day one, I'll take Option A.