What Are The Odds Trump Will Survive?

Almost one-fifth of our presidents have died in office. What are his chances?

Fact: 18% of US presidents have died while in office.

And if 78-year-old Donald Trump serves a full second term, he'll be the oldest president in history. Yes, even older than Joe Biden.

So what are his chances of surviving that full second term? Let’s take a look at everything from his overall health to the fact that people keep trying to kill him and try to determine Trump’s chances of serving out his term.

The Cold Numbers

The government creates actuarial tables to try and figure out how likely people are to die. The Centers for Disease Control does it to figure out how to help people live longer, and the Social Security Administration does it because they need to send old people checks for the rest of their lives.

First, the obvious. Trump looks pretty good for his age. Anyone who’s seen his sweet dance moves knows he has energy and strength. But he’s not a young man, and he’ll start the presidency about 6 months older than Joe Biden was when he was sworn in.

A 78-year-old male has an average life expectancy of nine more years. Over the next four years, Trump has a 5 – 7% chance of dying in any single year. He essentially has a 75.3% chance of surviving all of those four years according to Social Security Administration data. For Trump, that means a one-in-four chance of not completing a second term. However, he’s already outlived the average American male life expectancy of 76.1 years.

Trump has several factors working in his favor. He's a lifelong teetotaler and doesn’t smoke. We know smoking is a huge factor in dying early. As for drinking, some studies say a glass of wine a day can help your health. But lots of people, including Trump’s own brother, have died from factors related to alcoholism. For most people, drinking doesn’t make them healthier.

His doctors consistently report good cardiac health, with normal blood pressure and cholesterol. Trump's former physician, Dr. Harold Bornstein, once claimed that Trump would be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency and that his lab results were astonishingly excellent. But remember, the seriousness of FDR’s polio, along with ailments suffered by several other prominent politicians, was hidden from the American people. So I’m not sure how much stock we put in his doctor reports.

His parents lived long lives - his mother was 88, and his father was 93 when they died, although Fred Trump, Sr. did have dementia in his later years.

But Trump’s weight and diet raise some red flags. He's famously fond of fast food and red meat, though his exact weight remains a mystery. His arrest records in New York and Georgia show different numbers and no one – except probably Trump himself – knows for certain.

The presidency also comes with extraordinary life-preserving perks. The White House Medical Unit is on-hand to provide 24/7 care, Air Force One includes a flying hospital, and the Secret Service is there to protect the president at all times. Trump is also less likely to fall off a ladder changing a lightbulb, or to suffer other common accidents.

The threat of assassination

But one of the biggest threats to any sitting president is the threat of being shot. Four presidents (9% of those who served) were assassinated while in office, and we know of at least five serious attempts on Trump’s life.

• Las Vegas: Michael Steven Sandford, a 20-year-old British man, tried to grab a police officer’s gun at a rally in 2016 in order to kill Trump. He was diagnosed with a mental illness and deported back to England.

• Mandan, North Dakota: Gregory Lee Leingang hijacked a forklift in 2017. His plan was to flip Trump’s presidential vehicle upside down, but he was caught when the forklift got stuck. Unsurprisingly, he was mentally ill as well.

• Butler, Pennsylvania: Thomas Matthew Crooks shot Trump at a rally and killed a man in the audience who was shielding his family. It was found there was gross Secret Service incompetence which led to the director’s resignation.

• West Palm Beach, Florida: Ryan Routh was caught lying in wait at Trump’s golf course, aiming to assassinate Trump as he came to the next hole.

• Washington, DC: In November of 2024, the Justice Department uncovered an Iranian plot to kill Trump in retaliation for the 2020 killing of Iranian General Soleimani.

That's a lot of attempts on one guy's life. In a typical year, the Secret Service deals with about 1500 death threats, and during Trump's first term, those threats rose.

And he can’t stay in the basement while he’s governing. The president needs to be out in public, attending events and making speeches in front of crowds. The chance of someone crazy or evil causing him harm isn’t zero.

So will he survive a full second term? Probably. Most of these statistics are generalizations, and his survival rate for any of them is still on the high side.

I looked more closely at these stats, and the dangers and perks of being president, in my latest video. Check it out to see the real threats President Trump will face over the next four years. I found the research I did on this topic eye-opening.

— Ken

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