Usually, it’s the opposition party fantasizing about an incumbent president stepping down. These days, it’s quite the opposite.
Democrats have good reason to worry about Joe Biden paving the way for 'Trump 2', a sequel that terrifies them. Trump leads in virtually all polls — a first in his career — and shows strength in swing states as well. Biden’s economic policies aren’t likely to save him in the next year, and his age-related problems will only increase with time.
While he and his campaign have only given indications that he’s fully committed, here’s a primer for some Thanksgiving Day wild speculation.
“Dropping out” versus resigning
The best chance for “President Kamala Harris” is President Biden resigning, the earlier, the better.
Obviously, she becomes president at that point, but as limited as her political skills have proven to be, there’s power in the incumbency. Right now, she has nine months before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, a period during which she could bolster her image and gain greater influence over delegates.
There haven’t been many “what if” polls, but in the ones that exist, she generally leads the field with support in the low 30s. That number says she’d be the front-runner, but one where most Democrats wouldn’t immediately support her.
If Biden stays as president but drops out of the 2024 race, Harris has a much harder hill to climb.
Dropping out prior to the DNC convention
This gets interesting because, in some states, the deadline for getting on the primary ballot has already passed. As of yesterday, Alabama, Arkansas, and Nevada have already closed their nomination deadlines. Illinois, Texas, California, North Carolina, and Ohio all have December deadlines.
Each state has its own regulations on how to handle changes in candidacy after the ballot access deadline, and candidates would likely turn to the courts as well.
In states where Biden remained on the ballot, delegates sent to the Chicago convention would likely be free to vote for any nominee. It’s also worth remembering that 16% of the DNC convention voters are “super delegates”, chosen not by election but by party loyalty. They, too, can vote for whomever they choose.
What about after the DNC convention?
If Biden were to resign or withdraw after being nominated, the DNC would likely convene and choose a replacement candidate. It’d be a mad scramble like we’ve never seen at a convention in our lifetime.
Even after a selection, the physical timing of printing general election ballots becomes real. Half the states have an August deadline, and most require certification by September 8, just two weeks after the convention. Most states now have early voting, which complicates matters further.
This post-DNC scenario is so fraught with problems that it’s nearly impossible to imagine Biden doing so in the absence of a major health issue.
What about a really late change?
Ok, so what happens if a candidate were to die just a few days before the election?
While there’d undoubtedly be legal challenges, if a major candidate were to die after it was too late to change ballots, we’d fall back, as always actually, on the Electoral College.
Electors from that candidate’s party would vote for a replacement candidate when the Electoral College meets in December. In general, the Electoral College has the final say in who becomes president.
The closest we came to this scenario was in 1872 when Horace Greeley ran against President Ulysses S. Grant. He died after the election but before the Electoral College vote. The outcome was never in contention, since Greeley won less than 20% of the electors, who cast symbolic votes for other candidates.
All speculation aside, I’m certain of two things this year: 1) I have little idea how this crazy election will play out, and, 2) It’ll be one for the history books.
—Ken
The only question regarding Dementia Joe "resigning" before or after the convention will be how much the current House impeachment inquiries drag in the Obamas, Clintons, et al. If it gets too hot, Joe will be either forced to resign or will be taken out with the 25th amendment. Marxist Dems shooting their own will be glorious, thus putting an end to the inquiries. It would behoove the GOP to hold off on pursuing impeachment to let the Dems swing in the wind for as long as possible.
My understanding is that the DNC bylaws provide that the DNC would select their candidate in the case of Dementia Joe's resignation after the convention. I think you underestimate the level of party "unity" in that situation. Ask Mayor Adams what happens if you step out of the party line. I believe it would be highly likely that the DNC would attempt to put up Michelle/Michael Obama as their candidate. By that time, there won't be any major Marxist Dem candidates left that aren't heavily tainted with the fraud and corruption that will be made public over the next 9 months or so. This will put the entire MAGA focus on Hussein which will result in them becoming non-viable, what with all the information regarding fraud and corruption in his "completely scandal free" regime also being made public. The next year is going to be quite the wild ride.
Neither party has a viable back-up plan. It appears Fox News is determined to push Haley and even DeSantis until the primaries do them in. No major media are giving us much information about potential post-Biden Democrats beyond VP Harris and Gov. Newsom. I'd like to know more about Governors Whitmer and Polis, for example. Is Fox so tainted to the (D)s that they're reluctant to appear? Or is Fox wary of publicizing potential Democrat winners sometime down the line?
Much is said about Senator Manchin and the No Labels movement. I think he'd be a terrible choice for them as a quasi-"pro-life" Democrat from a Trump-enthused state. Neither side trusts him. The only explanation for all his press is that he courts the media the way John McCain did, i.e. relentlessly.
Media biases -- left and right, pro and con -- continue to sway coverage. Without name recognition prospective 2024 and 2028 candidates must raise and spend big money to build personal brands. That alone is enough to discourage accomplished individuals from running. The media need to introduce deserving new political faces with the same urgency they reserve for introducing undeserving but good-looking young reporters on their screens.