Uncomfortable advice for Nikki Haley
The odds are small, but not zero.
Before working in news, my career was as a political consultant. It was how I first met Roger Ailes, who I worked with for years before he founded the Fox News Channel. If I were working for Nikki Haley, this would be my advice.
TO: Â Governor Haley
FR: Â Ken LaCorte
RE: Â Stay in the race
Barring an unforeseen event, there’s virtually no chance we beat Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. His current RCP polling average is 66%, and no campaign rhetoric will affect that substantively, certainly not enough to cost him the nomination.
Yet … unforeseen events happen.Â
Death. As unpleasant as this is for strategic advice, let’s remember that people die. The actuarial tables for a 77-year-old man in good health show that he has just under a 5% chance of dying this year. We really have no idea what his health condition is, and, quite frankly, he doesn't look like he spends much time on the treadmill.
If that unfortunate situation happened here, you are the odds-on favorite to become the leader of the free world.
Convictions. It’s hard to war-game the speed or outcome of his four criminal trials. It’s even harder to gauge what percentage of Republican voters might abandon him if he’s convicted. The polls show a significant number would vote for an alternative, but who knows? It’s completely uncharted territory.
We don’t know the odds, but there’s a possibility that you become the Republican nominee for president. If you drop out before the convention, that possibility drops to zero.
There are good reasons to drop out, of course.
It’ll be rough. Expect ruthlessness from Trump, who already called you 'Birdbrain' twice today on social media. He’s mocked your heritage, intelligence, and will ratchet that up further. His supporters will follow suit, and you’ll need thick skin.
There will be pressure, and possible embarrassment. He’s likely going to win big in South Carolina, which will sting given your gubernatorial popularity there. The media and many donors will mock your chances of winning, and it will be a lonely road. Still, only 2% of Republicans have had the ability to vote for their candidate; you being an alternative to the other 98% is a feature of our democracy.
Finally, if you do choose to stick it out until Milwaukee, I’d recommend a different campaign strategy. Campaign not to beat Trump, but to bring some civility back into our politics.Â
Let him call you names, but don’t respond in kind. Don’t attack him personally. Continue to offer up the policies you believe in, but more importantly, act in the manner that you’d run the country.Â
     – Ken
Ken, why do you want to give the Democrat Party all this fodder for their campaign?? they use it every.single.day! STUPID!!!! .... Concentrate and beating the Dem Party no matter who ends up the candidate. Haley QUIT!
That "we" in the first paragraph threw me off too, until I re-read the italicized preface: "If I were working for Nikki Haley, this would be my advice." That's IF, subjunctive voice, not Ken's own.
[Aside request: I'm trying to use italics and bold in my own comments, but can't figure out how. HTML didn't work. Can anyone direct me to instructions, or is it not available to commenters?]
Don't blame Ken for the intellectual exercise.
So I could say, "if I were a paid advisor to Kamala Harris, I'd befriend Nikki Haley and offer to resign and recommend her for my job, if she'd arrange with one of her benefactors to find me a way to earn, say, $10 million a year in the private sector for the next ten years on some board or another." It wouldn't make me a Friend of Kamala, just a practical wiseass.
If I were advising Haley, I'd say go run against Lindsay Graham. That way we'll be rid of at least one of you.